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Finance Minister Fayval Williams met with the island's trade unions on Friday to discuss headwinds facing the government in the ongoing wage negotiations with public sector employees.
The high-level meeting, which was held at the Jamaica Conference Centre in downtown Kingston, was addressed by economist Dr. Adrian Stokes and Fiscal Commissioner Courtney Williams.
The meeting comes on the heels of a controversial recommendation by the Independent Fiscal Commission for the government to consider reintroducing a ceiling on wages and salaries following its latest assessment of the Dr. Andrew Holness administration's fiscal performance.
At the meeting, the Finance Minister and her technocrats sought to clarify the need to anchor public sector wage negotiations within a clear, timely framework to improve budget predictability and fiscal sustainability.
The Fiscal Commissioner emphasised that the importance of establishing a fixed compensation negotiation cycle, recommending that wage settlements be finalised at least six months before the annual budget call, ideally by end of January, to inform the government's budget planning.
This cycle, he said, would allow unions to submit claims within two months of the compensation call, enabling negotiations to start by April 1 and conclude promptly.
The IFC highlighted that negotiations currently lag by at least 15 months, creating uncertainty about the wage bill, the largest single-budget item.
Minister Williams and the IFC stressed that timely settlements protects workers' purchasing power and help the government manage fiscal risks better.
The minister argued that the lack of a fixed cycle poses a risk of delayed settlements overlapping with budget submissions and complicating fiscal planning.
At the meeting, the IFC raised the prospect of reintroducing a wage-to-GDP ratio as a fiscal anchor to maintain sustainable wage growth aligned with economic performance.
Data submitted Friday showed that over the last decade, wages have grown by 180 per cent, while GDP grew by only 97 per cent, indicating wages have outpaced economic growth.
The IFC recommended that the government and unions consider a strategic multi-year wage framework similar to Jamaica's debt reduction strategy, which met targets two years ahead of schedule.
This approach aims to balance fair compensation with fiscal responsibility without setting a fixed percentage immediately.
No more than 2%
During Friday's meeting, the government indicated that it will not be able to offer more than the 2 per cent submitted to the workers.
The panelists agreed that public sector wage growth must be matched by efforts to grow the GDP, which currently expands around one to two per cent, insufficient in keeping pace with wage increases.
Dr. Stokes and Minister Williams emphasised that Jamaica must avoid external fiscal constraints, like IMF imposed limits by negotiating internally, sustainable wage and fiscal policies.
Minister Williams called for a credible wage strategy, balancing fair compensation with fiscal discipline, adding that this is essential to maintain fiscal space to fund social programmes and infrastructure.
The she argued that inflation has declined significantly to a range of four to six per cent, and the exchange rate remains stable with a depreciation rate, around two per cent annually, signalling macroeconomic stability.
But despite macro strengths, it was revealed that the wage bill now consumes about 50 cents of every dollar, up from 37 cents in 2019, while tax revenue growth has slowed to 6.8 per cent year over year amid weakening economic activity.
Meanwhile, the University and Allied Workers Union (UAWU) declined the invitation to attend Friday's meeting with the Finance Minister.
In an interview with Radio Jamaica News, UAWU President Lambert Brown accused the government of painting a false picture on the state of the economy during the run-up to the general election.
He said the administration must now find the funds to pay the public sector employees a decent salary increase in the wage talks.
"The Ministry of Finance and the Public Service should have started the negotiation with the unions from last year November, when the unions submitted form claims. In March of this year, the minister said that there will be no cap on wages. Now after the election has been run, we are being told that there must be restraint."
"When the workers are making a sacrifice in the country's interest and holding strain, they promised us that when the debt to GDP was reduced, that the workers would be treated fairly. The only set of people who have been treated well have been the politicians who gave themselves 300% salary increase. Now the workers, the firemen, the correctional officers, the police, the teachers, the civil servants, all those workers in the public sector - now that those workers want an increase, they have been told to all strain," Mr. Brown complained.
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