"The Man" Barry - Part 2

By Bumpy Walker

Venezuela, in the Western Hemisphere, with its dependence on high oil prices, is effectively left floundering, resorting to blaming all its ills on PAX Yanki while ignoring the fact of a low oil price.  The grand gestures of Anti Americanismo by the flamboyant, beret wearing ex Paratrooper late President Chavez are now too expensive as the country struggles to repay its loans. Venezuela instead turns it eyes towards poor Guyana and is resorting once more to rule by decree. 

To gain hard currency, Venezuela has sold its Petro Caribe loans for a fraction of their value to US financial institutions for cents on the dollar to provide badly needed hard currency.  Thus the US needs little or no active deployment of resources to blunt Venezuelan opposition to its regional influence.  

Barry and Cuba

The great shame of the US foreign policy has been the Cuban embargo.  Yet, it is during the Obama administration that meaningful steps have happened to correct this wrong. Serendipity may, partially be the reason; given the passing of the Bay of Pigs generation, thus freeing US politics from the baggage of the 60’s.

While the Castro Regime no longer has international sponsors, such as the long gone Soviets, and Venezuela is too stretched to continue providing economic support.  Raul Castro, no doubt seeing these restrictions, and needing to feed his nation and modernize the economy, has to be more amenable to a less threatening Obama administration.

Two I’s Clash

There are historical reasons why Iran feels disdain for the USA. That being said, the world, and the US in particular have to engage with Iran, not if but when it develops nuclear weapons. Students of history are aware that nuclear armed nations are a reality and have to be engaged with each other, whatever their differences. 

Israel, long suspected of having nuclear weapons, is cognizant that a single device targeted at Tel Aviv would effectively wipe it out. At this stage Israel seems to think it can stop this tide, as witnessed by Netanyahu’s speech to both houses of the US Congress.   It is not in Israel's interest to see corporation between Iran and the US, given Iran's support for the Hezbollah and Hamas, the principal opponents of Israel in the occupied territories and Lebanon; especially a nuclear armed Iran.

At the moment the two I’s (Iran and Israel) are at logger heads; the US alone can be a broker between the two, given its historical alliances with both countries. Obama through Secretary of State Kerry appears to have pushed this dialogue along far enough to de-escalate four decades of tension, that a treaty is envisioned.  Why Israel sees this as undesirable is understandable. Why the Republicans should see this as a threat is bizarre.

For the first time since the Suez Crisis there is day light between the interests of US and Israel.  At the moment the US needs to engage with Iran more than it needs Israel, as it needs Iranian resources to counter Islamic fundamentalism in Iraq-Syria-Libya, while Israel sees this alliance as a threat.

Israel may have the most effective regional armed forces, but in this future of asymmetric non State controlled ideological led terrorism, it is not an effective instrument of imposing political will.   Battalions are less important than human intelligence, political and tacit support.

The current middle east situation is analogous to the leftist attempts at revolution in pre-World War I Europe rather than the post World War II nation states confronting each other behind flags.

Obama saves the world.

Barack ('Barry') Obama was in the middle of his first campaign when the 2008 Wall Street crisis hit. Basically the crisis was over-leveraged financial institutions were destabilised by a falling market.  In the idealised historical version, both Obama and his Republican rival for the presidency, John McCain,  rushed to Washington to meet with the sitting President,  Treasury Department (led by Hank Paulson and Timothy Geithner),  Federal Reserve,  and the leadership of both houses of Congress. In spite of the differences, they still managed to produce a plan of action. It was a glorious moment of cross party, cross institutions of government cooperation. Essentially it worked,  re-establishing the status quo of the US economy , despite the relatively short term economic fallout, the bankruptcy of a number of financial institutions and dramatic negative impact on the real estate market.(4)

Obama chided the outgoing president in his inauguration speech, then continued with the agreed mitigation plan and appointed Timothy Geithner, one of its architects, as his Treasury Secretary. His economic policy of quantitative easing (or effective devaluation) made the US economy more competitive and gave my investment choice credibility!

This is hardly the act of an ideologue, hell bent on the destruction of capitalism and Christianity, as he at times has been characterized his opponents.

Campaign Promises.

To my mind there were three major Obama promises during the 2008 campaign.  They were the closure of the prison for enemy combatants at Guantanamo Bay (Gitmo) within 100 day, the pull out of United States combat troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, and health care reform. 

All except the GITMO promise have been kept.  If one ignores Special Forces advisers, trainers and private military contractors, who are still at play, combat troops have indeed been pulled out of Afghanistan and Iraq. (Currently there are 10,000 US troops in Afghanistan in “non” combat role, with their deployment extended till 2016). Effectively the optics hav change, with no images of flag covered coffins on the nightly news. Instead video game death is delivered to enemy combatants by drones flown from Nevada and Diego Garcia. Or enemies of the United States are stealthily hunted down and conveniently “die in combat” in the Pakistan, Somalia, at the hands of its special forces. Minimum exposure, maximum effect, a tenant of Sun Tzu’s Art of War fulfilled. 

The promised closure of GITMO, in hindsight, was politically unsustainable. There is no way the prisoners could be tried in open court, as advocated in the 2008 campaign.  At a minimum, potential intelligence blunders and Abu Ghraib type cruelties could be exposed. Closure and release of un-convicted prisoners may be morally correct, but for Obama it would be political and security suicide. 

Slowly the administration has reduced the prisoner numbers by handing them over to allies to imprison or to allow them to live in third party countries.  It is more instructive that the US chooses not to hand these prisoners to their home countries where the burden of proof is lower, firm physical persuasive techniques applied and state sponsored executions are acceptable as part of their justice systems.  Ah! If only the young African American males were offered this vision of fair justice!

Barry did succeed where Bill Clinton failed. HHe managed to develop and pass into law a health care bill.  It is not perfect and can be rationalized as the only politically viable solution possible.  But it is a health care bill, as promised!

The Obama administration has managed these and other contradictions, at times from the perspective of his ideology and his beliefs. At other times real politics has led him to be as pragmatically amoral as Henry Kissinger. 

Yet, that a competent president with minor ideologically differences from his Republican opponents  is treated with such disdain they would sabotage his policies leads an observer to conclude there must be another cause.  This irrational behaviour has to be the elephant in the room, like “The Man,” his genetic makeup!

From a personal political perspective, I viewed McCain as a more suitable candidate for the presidency in 2008 (until the moment he made Sarah Palin his running mate). McCain’s  position on active engagement in the Middle East, the need to change  the view that the United States would act unilaterally, over the objections of its allies,  his acknowledgment of the impact of human induced climate change, the fact that he had wartime experience as a prisoner of war, would have made him like most combat experienced leaders, reluctant to send troops into harm’s way. Had McCain won the presidency, I suspect there would be little difference between a McCain foreign policy and that of Obama.  Thus it is surprising to see that McClain being among the Republican Senators who signed the open letter.  But then memories recall the Black Activist Jesse Jackson’s disdain for Obama on an open mike.

But Barry has performed credibly, even to the point where his pre-emptive receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize now seems deserved - ending two wars and engaging with Iran.

It is worth making clear, therefore, that I am now a fan of the President.  It seems, no matter how embarrassing my teenage daughter finds my fatherly behaviour, I can point out that Malia and Sasha have it harder. Thanks Barry!

References

(1)    The Man: Irvine Wallace

(2)    http://www.newsweek.com/when-barry-became-barack-84255

(3)    The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Energy Revolution: Gregory Zuckerman

(4)    Too Big to Fail: Inside the Battle to Save Wall Street: Andrew Ross Sorkin

Bumpy Walker, an engineer by training, is a Jamaican based in Europe