JLP and PNP still locked in statistical dead heat days before election

By Nakinskie Robinson    

 

It's a statistical dead heat as to whether voters will go green with the Jamaica Labour Party or head for the People's National Party on election day, Monday February 26.

 

Narrow perfectly describes the one percentage point lead held by the Jamaica Labour Party.

 

That is the same gap held in the political poll late last year.

 

In the latest RJRGLEANER Don Anderson poll, 24 per cent of those surveyed say they will be voting for the ruling party and 23 per cent for the People's National Party.

 

Noticeably higher is the 26 per cent who will not be voting and the same number who are unsure if they will be doing so.

 

Only 1 per cent say they would vote for an independent candidate.

 

Pollster and head of Market Research Services Don Anderson says the party with the best campaign strategy on Monday will take the election. 

 

"It says, either number can play. Speaking of which, it's a numbers game. So the party that gets out its supporters best of all on Monday will win the election, on the basis of the data."

 

He said tradition is also the biggest influence on voter intention, with 42 per cent for the JLP and 46 per cent for the PNP. 

 

"Tradition has been stronger for the People's National Party than it has been for the Jamaica Labour Party. Males are going to support PNP more, and more females are going to support Jamaica Labour Party. In the 25 to 34 age group, it is basically evenly split between the Jamaica Labour Party and the People's National Party," Mr. Anderson noted. 

 

Interestingly, 19 per cent of JLP supporters believe the party is doing a good job while 13 per cent of PNP supporters believe their party will do better.

 

Meanwhile, 4 per cent say they are voting JLP because the party has better leaders and 8 per cent of PNP voters say the same for their party.

 

Five per cent say they have personally benefitted from the JLP and 3 per cent from the PNP.

 

Ten per cent of prospective JLP voters say the councillors are working, 5 per cent each believe the party has better policies and that the country is progressing.

 

Three per cent each say the party is better and that it is meeting the people's needs.

 

For PNP voters, 13 per cent say they want a change - a running theme for the party's campaign.

 

Another 12 per cent say the PNP is the party for the poor, 8 per cent say they put the people first and 3 per cent say they are supporting because they are dissatisfied with the JLP.

 

If the polls hold true, it will be a nail-biting finish in the race to secure local governance.

 

Of the 228 divisions, the JLP holds 130 and the PNP holds 98 plus the Portmore Municipal Corporation.

 

The poll was conducted amongst a sample of 1,010 registered voters, aged 18 and older.

 

Field work was conducted between February 2 to February 7.

 

The margin of error was plus or minus 3 per cent.