Jamaica's economy contracts by 2.9% for April-June

 

Jamaica's economy contracted by 2.9 per cent for April to June compared with the corresponding quarter last year. 

 

Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Dr. Wayne Henry, said the decline largely reflected the lingering impact of monster storm Melissa, which battered several sectors of the economy. 

 

Dr. Henry said the hurricane also weakened domestic demand as fewer people were employed and business consumer confidence declined. 

 

The Director General said Melissa's impact was compounded by the El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions. He warned this could further threaten agricultural output, water availability and public health, putting livelihoods and the performance of several industries at risk. 

 

Meanwhile, he said the Jamaican economy is expected to contract in the next quarter as the country continues its recovery process. 

 

"The preliminary data presented on performance for the April to June 2026 quarter indicate that the economy continued along the recovery process, recording successively lower rates of contraction over the last three quarters. An assessment of the performance of the major economic variables relative to the previous quarter confirms the extent of the recovery being experienced. Following three consecutive quarters of quarter over quarter growth during the first nine months of 2025, the economy experienced a sharp setback in the October to December 2025 quarter as Hurricane Melissa triggered a 7.3 per cent decline in real value added relative to July to September 2025," he outlined. 

 

He has projected economic expansion for fiscal year 2026-2027. 

 

"For July to September 2026, the economy is projected to contract within the range of 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent relative to July to September 2025. However, for the full fiscal year, fiscal year 2026-27, economic expansion is projected within the range of 1 per cent to 3 per cent. Economic growth is expected to be driven by gradual recovery in all industries due to an expectation of fairly robust growth in the latter half of the fiscal year as a result of the low base effect from the Hurricane Melissa impact in the latter half of fiscal year 2025-26," said the Director General.

 

Dr. Henry provided the update during the PIOJ's quarterly review of Jamaica's economic performance and outlook on Tuesday.