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PNP's lead over JLP narrows - poll

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Lorraine Walker reports
 
Jamaica's two main political parties are locked in a close contest going into the next general election. 
 
That's according to the latest RJRGLEANER-commissioned Don Anderson polls, which shows no clear favourite among voters at this time. 
 
The results show 32.6 per cent of those polled saying they would vote for the People's National Party (PNP) as against 29.6 per cent for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).
 
The Jamaican electorate is seemingly signalling to the two main political parties that they need strong convincing on where to place their 'X' come election day.
 
The results also show hardly any difference between those who said they are not sure who they will vote for, at 18.4 per cent, and the 19.4 per cent who indicated that they are not likely to vote.
 
The poll was conducted from May 18 to June 7 among 1,033 Jamaicans aged 18 years and older. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.
 
Pollster Don Anderson said the PNP has been steadily losing ground since the February 2024 local government elections where it won the popular vote.
 
He noted that the latest results show a shift from the slightly more comfortable lead the party enjoyed immediately following the local government elections. 
 
"This represents a falloff of another 1.7 percentage points on the PNP side because when we did the poll last in February of 2025, the People's National Party were up to a 4.7 percentage point gap. But this has now been cut to three percentage points. It's just on the cusp of the margin of error of plus or minus three per cent. So we're not going to say it's a dead heat. If it was within that margin of error then clearly we would have said it's a dead heat at the moment. It's three percentage points. Now that represents a second falloff in the two consecutive surveys that we have done this year. We did a poll in February at which point in time the People's National Party enjoyed a 4.7 percentage point lead, down from nine percentage points in September 2024," he explained.
 
Meanwhile, Mr. Anderson said the numbers for the Jamaica Labour Party have remained flat over consecutive polls. He said despite increased campaigning by both major political parties, the number of undecided voters continues to rise.
 
"People are now beginning to sit on the fence again because being exposed to respective campaigns, they are now saying I'm not quite sure how to vote, whereas maybe six months ago they could tell you definitively what they wanted to do. But in this particular poll, we find that close to 50 per cent are now saying I'm really not sure. So the undecided has actually gone up a bit."
 
The results are further broken down by gender and age group, 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and people over age 65.
 
In terms of gender, 11 per cent more males indicated that they would vote for the PNP, while 3.5 per cent more females said they would vote JLP.
 
Mr. Anderson said the PNP also continues to enjoy strong support among older voters while younger voters are firmly behind the JLP. 
 
"Their other strong segments of support were in the 35 to 44 and a 45 to 54 age group. Those are the ones who primarily said they would vote for the People's National Party. Conversely the Jamaica Labour Party got its support mainly from persons sort of in the 25 to 34 age group... and what's interesting is that whereas the People's National Party has tended to dominate in the 65 over category, that's almost split evenly at the moment.
 
"Younger persons 18 to 24 also more inclined to vote for the Jamaica Labour Party. Now we find that particularly interesting because over the last five years they have tended to support the Jamaica Labour Party. But in the last year, we've find that kind of fluctuating, that support by the 18 to 24, fluctuating between the JLP and the PNP. It's solidly again back into the JLP's camp," Mr. Anderson outlined. 
 
When asked the main reason for their voting decision, 29 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the PNP to get rid of the ruling JLP.  
 
Another 24 per cent said they were loyal to the PNP, while 22 per cent wanted to give the PNP a chance. Other responses included that the PNP will do better for the country (9.4 per cent), they will do better for the people in the country (8 per cent) and that the party was more for the people generally (6 per cent).
 
The majority of respondents who indicated support for the JLP - 22.9 per cent - said their decision is influenced by the performance of the ruling party, noting that it was doing a good job. 
 
Another 22.3 per cent said they were loyal to the party, while 21 per cent said they would vote for the JLP so it can continue what it started. Other responses included that they had more confidence in the JLP, that party was better for the country, and others said they are better for the people.
 
Mr. Anderson said the responses were spontaneous and unprompted.
 
 


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