Damion Gordon
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Political commentator Damion Gordon
Political commentator Damion Gordon says he expects at least a 50% voter turnout for the September 3 general election.
The latest RJRGLEANER-commission Don Anderson poll has found that just over half of Jamaica's voting population is planning to cast a ballot in the general election set for two weeks from today.
Of the remaining potential voters, 29.1% said they have no intention of going to the polls while another 20.5% said they are not sure.
Younger members of the electorate were the least interested in being part of choosing the next government.
Of those aged 25 to 34 years old, 44.4% planned to vote, as did 39.3% of younger voters aged 18 to 24.
Commenting on the findings, Mr. Anderson said the expectation of a 50% or more turnout is optimistic and unlikely to be realised.
But in an interview with Radio Jamaica News on Wednesday, Mr. Gordon, an assistant lecturer in the Department of Government at the University of the West Indies, was slightly more hopeful.
"I expect the turnout to return to pre-pandemic level - maybe around the early 50s, but I don't expect it to past the 50% region, which is still technically a concern because it is still an indicator of voter apathy, a retreat of voters, especially young voters," he acknowledged.
Mr. Gordon said voter apathy among the youth continues to fuel the low voter turnout expectation.
The Don Anderson poll was conducted between August 2 and 11, among 1,008 registered voters aged 18 and older.
At the same time, Mr. Gordon said the poll findings have confirmed that the bases of the Jamaica Labour Party and People's National Party will determine the outcome of the parliamentary general election.
He said, combined, that is about 48% of the electorate.
"With just over 50% indicating that they are going to vote, it tells us that the bases are relatively energised going into the election," he suggested while maintaining that he still expects "the turnout to be relatively low in contrast to what turnout levels would have been in the 1990s, 1960s, 1970s".
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