The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says the region is set to transition into an intense heat season with heatwaves occurring as early as April.
This is due to an expected return of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO neutral conditions in the Pacific, while unusually warm Tropical North Atlantic temperatures persist.
ENSO is a climate pattern that involves changes in ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
In the latest publication of the Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, CariCOF said March is characterised by high evaporation rates and an annual peak in the frequency of short dry spells, as well as further buildup of any ongoing drought and with increasing wildfire potential.
By contrast, from April to May, rainfall intensity and shower frequency are likely to rise sharply, resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts in the Caribbean.
Episodes of Saharan dust intrusion – and lower air quality – are also likely to increase in frequency.
Meanwhile, CariCOF says long-term drought is evolving in southwest Jamaica, southwest Belize, northernmost Dominican Republic, southwest French Guiana, St. Croix, and northwest Trinidad.
The climate outlook for the period June to August 2025, which marks the summer portion of the Caribbean wet season and heat season, is for night-time temperatures to be higher than usual in most areas.
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