PNP maintains lead over JLP in party standings - RJRGLEANER Don Anderson poll

By Lorraine Mendez   

 

The opposition People's National Party (PNP) has maintained its lead over the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) based on voter intention. 

 

This is according to the findings of the latest RJRGLEANER Don Anderson poll, which shows the PNP having a 3.4 per cent lead over the JLP. 

 

Some 29.5 per cent of respondents indicated that they would vote for the PNP, as against 26.1 per cent for the JLP.

 

This is a significant shift from the poll conducted July last year, which showed 31 per cent of respondents indicating that they would vote for the JLP and 18 per cent, the PNP.

 

But pollster Don Anderson says it is also useful to note the results of two polls conducted this year on behalf of the PNP.

 

A poll conducted in February this year showed a statistical dead heat, with the PNP at 28.1 per cent and the JLP at 27.9 per cent. 

 

Another poll carried out in June this year showed the PNP had moved ahead of the JLP by five percentage points, with 30.2 per cent to the JLP's 25 per cent. 

 

Mr. Anderson said based on the demographic profile of those surveyed,  consistently across the four national polls, the JLP has strong support among the 18-35 age cohort, while for the PNP, support is strongest among people 55-64 years and older.

 

But it would appear that both parties have significant work to do in convincing those voters who are still on the fence. This, as 23.8 per cent of respondents indicated that they were not sure who would get their X, while a close 20.6 per cent said they would not vote.

 

Based on last year's results, the number of eligible voters who are uncertain has increased by 6.8 per cent, while the number of those who will not vote has decreased by 13.4 per cent.

 

Last year, 17 per cent of respondents said they were not sure who they would be voting for while 34 per cent indicated that they would not be casting a ballot.

 

The latest poll was conducted over the period August 30 to September 14, 2023 among 1,010 people 18 years and older who were registered to vote in the area in which they lived.

 

The margin of error was plus or minus three per cent. 

 

 

In the meantime, voter turnout in the next election is predicted at more than 40 per cent, slightly higher than the record low 38 per cent turnout for the last general election in 2020.

 

According to the latest RJRGLEANER Don Anderson poll, 37 per cent of respondents are likely to vote if an election is called now. Nineteen per cent said they may go out to vote. 

 

"When we cumulate that and add to that the vote intent from about maybe 25 or 30 constituency polls over the last six months, we arrive at 44-45 per cent who are likely to vote and therefore we expect that the voter turnout for the next election is going to be greater than it was certainly in the last election," Mr. Anderson asserted. 

 

He cautioned that the voter intent is generally higher than the actual turnout for various reasons.

 

Twenty-five per cent of those polled have indicated that they definitely will not be going out to vote.