Tropical Storm Melissa's slow movement causing forecast uncertainty

 

Principal Director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, Evan Thompson, says the slow movement of Tropical Storm Melissa has made it difficult for forecasters to give a precise timeline for the system to begin impacting Jamaica. 

 

The projection was for showers from the storm to begin affecting the island late Thursday. 

 

In its latest bulletin at 8 a.m., the Met Service said the Tropical Storm Warning at Hurricane Watch continue for Jamaica, even as reconnaissance aircraft indicates a drift of Tropical Storm Melissa to the east southeast over the Caribbean Sea. 

 

Melissa is expected to drift slowly toward the northeast and north later on Friday and Friday night. 

 

Mr. Thompson said there is uncertainty at this time about the direction of Tropical Storm Melissa.

 

"[It's being] investigated by aircraft reconnaissance and it shows that there is a slight drift just beginning to take place, but that drift is not directly enough toward us yet. So we are watching that very closely and the next bulletin will indicate the latest on that one.... Of course the projections are there and they are entirely scientific. We look at what the computer models are actually predicting, and although there is a disparity there, we use quite a bit of even common sense and experience to try to determine what is the best track that it's likely to take, taking into consideration all the guidance that we have," said the senior meteorologist. 

 

"So it's still kind of, in a way, up in the air, but we still do expect that the system will be moving closer to Jamaica as a tropical storm. We still expect that it will strengthen into a hurricane, and even a major hurricane, as it continues on its journey," he admitted.

 

Mr. Thompson was speaking on Radio Jamaica's Sunny Side Up with host Derrick Wilks on Friday morning. 

 

Tropical Storm Melissa is projected to dump up to 350 millimetres or 14 inches of rain over eastern parishes through the weekend, causing widespread flooding and landslides.

 

This would gradually spread westward across the country next week.