The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum is reporting that the heat season, expected to begin in April, will not likely be as intense as the last two years.
CariCOF, in its latest outlook for the upcoming period, April to June, released on Monday, said this is due to El Niño Southern Oscillation neutral conditions in the Pacific, combined with unusually warm waters around the Caribbean and temporarily cooler waters in the eastern Tropical North Atlantic.
CariCOF says, except for the mostly dry ABC Islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao, rainfall intensity and shower frequency should rise towards May in The Bahamas, Guianas and Greater Antilles, or June in Belize and the Lesser Antilles resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.
The agency says episodes of Saharan dust intrusion will likely be frequent.
In its latest drought situation, CariCOf said moderate, or worse, short-term drought has developed in the central and northern Bahamas, The Cayman Islands, parts of St. Croix, Sint Maarten and St. Bart's.
It said long-term drought is evolving in southern Belize, northern Dominican Republic, southwest Jamaica, St. Bart's, St. Vincent, southeast Suriname and northwest Trinidad.
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