Economic decline projected for Jamaica in September quarter

 

Jamaica's economy could see a decline in the current July to September quarter.

 

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) says this is as a result of a slowdown in various sectors, due to the passage of Hurricane Beryl.

 

PIOJ Director General Dr. Wayne Henry says GDP is expected to contract within the range of -0.1 per cent, to -1 per cent.

 

"This projection is further supported by preliminary data received for July 2024, which indicate downturns in hotels and restaurants with provisional data reflecting a decline of 7.7 per cent in airport arrivals, electricity and water supply, reflecting decreases in both electricity and water consumption. For the month of July 2024, alumina production fell by 23.4 per cent and crude bauxite production declined by 7.6 per cent."

 

For fiscal year 2024-25, the PIOJ's fiscal year projection is for GDP change within the range of -1 per cent to 1 per cent.

 

Dr. Henry said there are a number of downside risks for the short term, largely associated with the adverse impact of Hurricane Beryl on production activity. 

 

"The performance of the mining and quarrying industry was adversely affected by Hurricane Beryl, as a port at Rocky Point was damaged, causing the diversion of alumina exports to an alternative port. It is anticipated that the electricity and water supply industry will record significant damage and loss as a result of the destruction to infrastructure assets," he noted. 

 

The hotels and restaurants industry was also impacted by the cancellation of flights and diversion of visitors to alternative destinations due to the passage of the hurricane.    

 

Dr. Henry said a detailed assessment is still being undertaken as a majority of the recovery work has just been completed. 

 

He added that a lower rate of tourist arrivals is expected for the quarter.