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The Jamaica Labour Party currently enjoys a nine percentage point lead over the People's National Party in the latest RJRGLEANER Don Anderson poll on voting intention.
The poll was done islandwide from August 19 to September 3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.
Last year September, the Jamaica Labour Party swept to power taking 49 of the 63 seats on offer, leaving the PNP with just 14.
A year later, pollster Don Anderson asked 1,003 Jamaicans which party they would vote for if a general election were called today.
Mr. Anderson says 26 per cent said they would vote for the JLP compared to 17 per cent who would vote for the PNP. This translates to the governing JLP leading the opposition party by nine percentage points, which the pollster calls "a substantial lead in any election."
However, Mr. Anderson says most respondents, or 57 per cent, either were not sure which party they would vote for or said they would not vote.
Thirty-one per cent said they were not going to vote, while 26 per cent were not sure who to vote for.
The JLP has lost some support among the electorate since its resounding win over the PNP a year ago.
The last two polls done in July and August 2020 had the JLP further ahead.
In July last year, the Jamaica Labour Party had led the PNP by 16 percentage points, as 36 per cent of those interviewed said they would vote for the JLP versus 20 per cent who supported the PNP.
In August 2020, the gap shrank slightly with JLP 12 percentage points ahead. At that time, 37 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the JLP while 25 per cent picked the PNP.
Mr. Anderson pointed out that, that based on this year's figures, the PNP has not benefited from the decline in support for the ruling party since its support has also slipped.
Reasons for party support
The PNP continues to garner most of its support from traditional voters, while most of those who said they would vote for the governing JLP said they thought that party was better at managing the country.
Mr. Anderson says tradition was further down the list of reasons given for supporting the JLP.
A breakdown shows 42 per cent of those who said they would vote for the JLP believed it was better able to manage the country; 39 per cent said they would do a better job; and 31 per cent said it was the best party at this time.
Another 26 per cent were traditional JLP supporters; 24 per cent believed the country was progressing well under that party's leadership; and 20 per cent thought the JLP had the country's best interest at heart and had better leaders.
But Mr. Anderson says 47 per cent of those who said they would vote PNP supported the party because of tradition.
He says 28 per cent said they want to see what the new leader can do; 24 per cent believed it is the best party; 21 per cent thought it could manage the country better; and 13 per cent said the PNP has the country's best interest at heart.
Mr. Anderson also notes that it appears the PNP is losing ground among its traditional voters.
He says where the PNP usually tends to appeal to older voters, now, "when you look across the demographic, there is not this high for the People's National Party amongst the older voters, as is normally the case."
According to Mr. Anderson, this could indicate that there are "a significant percentage of PNP supporters" among the 57 per cent of people who either do not know which party to vote for or said they would not vote.
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