New RJRGLEANER Don Anderson poll shows JLP still has double-digit lead over PNP

 

The People's National Party has a steep hill to climb ahead of Thursday's general election, as the Jamaica Labour Party still has a double digit lead going into the national poll.

 

Just over three weeks after an RJRGLEANER Don Anderson poll found that the gap had widened between the JLP and PNP, the team was back in the field from August 21 to August 24 to see whether things had changed.

 

This time, it found that the PNP, has made up some ground, but still lags far behind.

 

When the team, led by pollster Don Anderson, surveyed voting intention from July 23 to August 3, the data showed that the Jamaica Labour Party had doubled its lead on the People's National Party, moving from an eight point lead in February, to 16 points.

 

At that time, 36 per cent of electors had said they would vote for the JLP, while only 20 per cent said they would vote for the PNP, and 43 per cent either weren't voting or weren't sure which party they would vote for.

 

That was before the election date was announced.

 

But Mr. Anderson said the picture has changed slightly since then, based on the latest poll. 

 

Now, the data shows that the PNP has narrowed the gap from 16 percentage points to 12 percentage points. 

 

The JLP has gained one percentage point, moving to 37 per cent of persons who say they will vote for the party. However, the PNP has gained five percentage points in favourability, jumping to 25 per cent. 

 

The PNP therefore had a net gain of four percentage points.  

 

Still, Mr. Anderson said it appears unlikely that the parties will be able to woo the 38 per cent of electors who have indicated they will not vote or are unsure.

 

When asked what they thought either party could do to encourage them to go out and vote, the largest segment of that group - 40 per cent - said there is nothing either party could do to convince them to vote. 

 

Another 28 per cent they would vote if either party could convince them that they could create more economic opportunity, while 25 per cent said they would vote if a party could improve the infrastructure. Fourteen said they needed to see the member of parliament more in their area. 

 

 

 

Mr. Anderson also noted that while the poll suggests that 62 per cent of electors plan to vote for either party, he expects actual turnout to be much lower, especially due to the coronavirus. 

 

The voter turnout in the last general election in 2016 was 47.7 per cent - the lowest in Jamaica's history. 

 

"Now, we are going into an election under the most adverse conditions possible, so that whereas we have a pretty high intention to vote number now, it is unlikely that we will have even a 47 per cent turnout because of COVID, because of a number of other factors, but primarily because COVID is going to put a damper on people's willingness and preparedness to go out to vote," he explained. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The overwhelming majority of persons surveyed said the COVID-19 pandemic has not impacted their voting decision.

 

According to Mr. Anderson, 71 per cent of persons interviewed said the pandemic had done nothing to change their choice of who to vote for.